A quick thought here about the special election in Massachusetts to replace Ted Kennedy. Rep. Stephen Lynch just officially threw his name in the hat, joining state Attorney General Martha Coakley.The big question here is whether former Congressman Joe Kennedy II decides to enter the race. If Joe Kennedy gets in, he is immediately the guy to beat. Coakley is certainly Kennedy's most serious opponent. But what would be the effect of Lynch on the race if he decided to stay in with Kennedy in the race?
I figure that Lynch helps Kennedy. The wider the field, the safer that Joe Kennedy will be. Because the reality is that the first question most voters will ask, consciously or not, is going to be whether or not they want another Kennedy in the Senate. Then if the answer is 'no' they will decide which of the others they will support. Maybe only 48% of Massachusetts voters want another Kennedy in there right now. Which would give Coakley a 52% win in a 2 way race. But in a 3 or 4 way race, she will be stuck sharing out that 52% with whomever else is in the running. Giving Kennedy a win with a plurality.
The bottom line is that with both Coakley and Lynch having declared, Joe Kennedy's chances of winning have just gone up and you have to figure that this might encourage him more towards running.
[Photo courtesy of the House of Representatives. Its from the early 90's and he looks considerably less creepy now.]
5 comments:
Why are you backing this guy who takes money from a dictator like Chavez?
Anonymous 3:56,
When did I say a single word about supporting Joe Kennedy or any other candidate in that race? I have no horse in that race. All I did was provide a political analysis.
Your observation is a Virgnia Commonwealth/Beltway perspective...here in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts we see things differently...as evidenced by the fact that Hillary Clinton trounced Obama here in the Dem. Primary in spite of the fact that Obama had all MA Kennedys and the Governor campaigning for him...the women are ready to take this seat...JK or no JK...Congressman Lynch is anti-choice and a poor speaker...Coakley is smart and sharp and tough...fasten your seat belts boys, it's going to be a bumpy ride...but the next US Senator from MA will be Martha Coakley.
Absolutely right on- Martha Coakley hands-down. The old boys club of MA politics is so over. Women have done all the heavy lifting for years in this state- we canvased, sent out the mail etc. etc. and when our male Senators supported a candidate that the people of their state didn't - we women were not happy- It's time for real change- Time for a smart, hard working and experienced woman to have a chance- Sorry guys-
Anonymous 5:47,
I live about 150 miles away from the Beltway. Virginia is a very big state. Both culturally and geographically both myself and Albemarle County, VA have nothing to do with DC and its politics.
Moreover, I lived in Massachusetts while in college, both of my parents and much of my extended family are from MA, my father was active in MA politics and was the youngest person ever to hold elected office in that state. So I know a little bit more about Massachusetts politics than your typical person from outside of New England.
I absolutely agree with you that things have changed in the last few decades and that the Kennedy name isn't what it was. But it has been a long time since there has been much of a test. Coakley will be a very formidable candidate, having a state-wide constituency versus the provincial constituencies of the various Congressmen looking to run. Which is why I stated that Joe Kennedy is better off in a wide field. In a 2 way race, Coakley would probably win. But the Kennedy name still means a hell of a lot, even if not what it once did. That name doesn't mean 60 or 70% in a primary, but it might very well mean 40 or 45%. Which hands Coakley a victory in a 2 way race, but in a 3 or 4 way race 40 or 45% is probably enough to secure a plurality victory in the primary.
I have yet to hear a peep about a serious, eligible GOP candidate so whoever takes the Democratic primary probably has the seat.
Anonymous 5:47,
What, men haven't helped as well? Men don't canvas or work phone banks? I call BS. I think we're beyond the point where most people give a damn whether a candidate is male or female. Coakley won't - and shouldn't - win based on her gender any more than a man should.
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