Tom Davis is Neither Dumb nor Crazy.

With the Democratic Party nominee for Senate pretty clearly established today, what are Tom Davis' plans likely to be? Is he still the favorite to take on Mark Warner?

I will be shocked if Tom Davis gets into the race now that there is no question of who he'd be up against. Rassmussen released a poll putting Davis up against Mark Warner for Senate yesterday. Davis was trounced by Warner, 57-30.

Nobody in their right mind gives up a Congressional seat with that much power and seniority to fight a Senate campaign in which they are going in down 57-30. The kind of candidates you get with those odds are guys who do not currently hold office and have nothing to lose. Frequently the ones who just want to make some sort of Quixotic point. Which is exactly what the VA GOP will probably end up with. Jim Gilmore or Pat Buchanan. Maybe Allen Keyes will take the plunge again. Heh heh.

Davis' big assets in this race were supposed to be his name recognition and his war chest. The name recognition clearly turns out to mean absolutely nothing against a force of nature like Mark Warner. As for the war chest, Davis has $1M in the kitty. That is actually pretty good and would have put him well ahead of any rivals. Except for Mark Warner, who walks in the door with $9M that he'd raised for his aborted Presidential race. All of which is eligible to be transferred to his Senate campaign (that wouldn't have been the case had he run for Governor).

Tom Davis could throw that $1M against Warner and it would be like attacking a Sherman tank with a tricycle. Warner could make Davis run through that money in about 5 minutes even if he didn't raise another dime himself. If Warner does want more money, this is a guy who routinely raises $1M and more at a single fund raising event. Davis is a heck of a good fund raiser by House standards. But not by Mark Warner standards.

No, Davis is not stupid enough to end his career like this. No doubt that Republican Congressional Campaign Committee is telling him the same thing, seeing as how Davis' exit from the House would essentially hand the Democrats another free seat to pad their majority with.

Over the next few weeks Tom Davis will be facing pressure from nearly all directions to stay out of this Senate race. The RCCC, the RNC and his staff and advisors (who would probably like to remain employed after 2008). Not mention people in his own district who enjoy having such a powerful representative in Congress who has been so successful at bringing home the bacon.

Meanwhile, while the RSCC would certainly like to have the best candidate they can for every contest, I doubt that his meetings with them will be encouraging from this point on. As of today, Virginia is at the top of everyone's list of Senate seats most likely to switch parties. The RSCC is short of cash, candidates and hope right now. They will be directing scarce resources to races they think they have a bigger shot of winning or holding. New Mexico and Alaska will both need lots of help to hold on to. New Hampshire is in big trouble. Lots of cash will be funneled into Louisiana where they have a real pick up opportunity. Generally speaking, the GOP's defensive game will be focused on supporting endangered incumbents and pinning a lot of hope on Louisiana to offset one of their losses. Of all of the Senate seats likely to change hands in 2008, an open seat with a David vs. Goliath set-up like Mark Warner's 57-30 advantage is certainly the least likely to attract support from either the RSCC or the RNC.

Tom Davis is not a stupid man. There's no way that he will end up running for this seat.